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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-04-09T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-04-09T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19709/-1
CME Note: Visible in the southwest of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen slowly lifting off in the southwest of SDO AIA 304 starting around 2022-04-09T05:15Z. It is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 171 and in the southwest of STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME sheath/shock arrived at 2022-04-12T10:33Z and the flux rope arrived at 2022-04-13T01:54Z. The flux rope arrival was used as the IPS entry arrival time in DONKI as the flux rope arrival was responsible for a 10nT threshold crossing in Btotal. Btotal had only reached a maximum Btotal of ~8nT for the shock arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-12T10:33Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-13T00:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 37.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.5
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.
Lead Time: -24034.38 hour(s)
Difference: -13.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
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